For all Iran’s threats to retaliate against Israel for assassinating key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, the key concern for the ayatollahs will be that, in any confrontation with the Israeli military, they have no chance of winning. Pictured: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) meets with Ismail Haniyeh (C), head of the political bureau of Hamas, and Ziyad al-Nakhalah, Secretary General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, on July 30, 2024. (Photo by the Iranian Supreme Leader’s Press Office via Getty Images)
No nation, no people, no one will ever from this point on, from 1948 on, EVER win a war against Israel. A lot of Jews do not believe this, but then a lot of Jews don’t believe in the One True God of the Holy Bible and they do not know or believe the Holy Bible.
A lot of people on earth don’t believe this. But, then, most people do not know or believe the Word of God.
No need to tremble, fret, worry, or fear.
Oh, pain and suffering have come, will come. Death to a degree will come. But Israel will NEVER be defeated by any nation on earth.
Difficult to believe for many. So many.
No faith. Little faith. Weak faith. Faith in the bluster, babel, ballyhooing of man, faith in weapons, feigned faith in themselves but deep within all the hiding denying, lying…
…they know. Oh, they know there is a God. Perhaps it isn’t the God they worship, or they don’t worship a God at all other than the one they see in the mirror reflected at them.
Iran knows it cannot win a war against Israel but that does not mean due to their arrogance, their ignorance, the lies they have told themselves so often they have become true to them, only them.
Iran will attack. At some time.
Let’s spend a lot of humble time, fervent time, and spiritual time praying for Israel. Praying for all the people of and in Israel.
I read the Bible. I know how this goes. I hope that you do as well and take refuge, confidence, and assuredness in the Lord and His inerrant infallible unchanging living and active Word. We all are in Biblical times. The last of the last days Biblical times.
God is not mocked. HIS land, HIS city, HIS people will not be removed or destroyed or conquered. Not this time.
Never again…
Read on…
Ken Pullen, Sunday, August 11th, 2024
NOTE: There are two articles below on this subject in one posting.
Iran Knows It Cannot Win a War against Israel
For all Iran’s threats to retaliate against Israel for assassinating key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, the key concern for the ayatollahs will be that, in any confrontation with the Israeli military, they have no chance of winning.
Tensions between Iran and Israel have risen considerably since Israel was accused of carrying out the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran shortly after the swearing in ceremony for Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian last month.
Although Israel rarely confirms or denies its involvement in overseas assassinations, the Iranian regime has been quick to accuse Israel of killing Haniyeh, who reportedly died after a bomb exploded in his guest apartment in northern Tehran. A senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, was assassinated in Beirut the previous day, in an operation for which Israel took credit.
Since then, the Iranian regime, together with the Hezbollah terrorist group it supports in southern Lebanon, have vowed to exact vengeance against Israel, prompting fears among Western diplomats that Tehran is seeking to provoke a major war in the Middle East.
Speaking at the UN shortly after the assassinations, Amir Saeed Iravani, Iran’s ambassador, warned that Tehran would not hesitate to exercise its right to self-defence, pointing a finger at Israel for the assassination Haniyeh on Iranian soil.
In a letter to the United Nations on July 31, Iravani described the attack as “a severe infringement on [Iran’s] sovereignty” that violated international law, adding: “The Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate to exercise its inherent right to self-defense.”
The prospect of a major escalation in hostilities has prompted the US, the UK and France to warn their nationals to leave Lebanon in anticipation of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has been launching near-daily attacks against northern Israel since October 7. Western military forces have been put on standby in the region to facilitate the evacuation of Western civilians if required.
Even so, the likelihood of Iran launching another attack against Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh’s assassination appears to be receding, not least because Tehran is well aware that, in any major military confrontation with Israel, it will inevitably be the loser.
Only a few days ago, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Iran was preparing a two-prong attack against Israel, with Tehran launching another missile assault from Iranians soil, while Hezbollah launched an attack from southern Lebanon.
That assessment has now been scaled down, with US officials reporting that Hezbollah is likely to carry out its own attack against Israel independent of whatever action Iran may be considering.
After days of waiting for Iran to launch an attack, Israeli officials also believe that the initial assault will not originate from Iran. The latest intelligence assessment by Israeli officials, reported on August 7, indicates a shift in expectations regarding the source of the anticipated attack.
Iran’s reluctance to become involved in another direct confrontation with Israel is based on the humiliation it suffered in April, when its efforts to launch a combined missile and drone attack against Israel ended in ignominious failure. Of the 300 or so missiles and attack drones launched at Israel, only one managed to reach its target, causing minimal damage, with the majority of the projectiles being intercepted by Israel and its allies before reaching their targets.
Of even greater concern for Iran was the ease with which Israeli warplanes penetrated Iran’s air defences to carry out a retaliatory attack against an Iranian air base on the outskirts of the central Iranian city of Isfahan, long regarded as the cradle of Iran’s nuclear programme.
By targeting Isfahan, the Israelis were sending a clear signal to the ayatollahs that their prized nuclear installations — which Western intelligence says are being used to develop nuclear weapons — are vulnerable to attack by the Israelis.
Iran’s concern about its military vulnerabilities explains why the ayatollahs have now turned to Russia to provide military assistance in their hour of need.
Iran has previously played a key role in supporting Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, where Iranian attack drones are regularly used to target key Ukrainian infrastructure.
With the prospect of renewed hostilities with Israel, the Iranians clearly believe that it is payback time so far as their alliance with Russia is concerned, a point they were keen to make during the recent visit to Tehran by Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s former defence minister and a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
During Shoigu’s talks with Pezeshkian and senior Iranian security officials, the Iranians called on Russia to provide advanced air defence systems, as well as Su-35 fighter jets.
The Russians, though, will need to tread carefully in deciding how much support to provide their Iranian allies.
Putin long enjoyed a strong personal relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of Moscow’s few bilateral ties that survived the Russian leader’s disastrous decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.
From Israel’s perspective, moreover, there is a strategic necessity to maintain ties with the Russian military, as the Russians continue to control most of the airspace in Syria as a result of their military intervention to keep the brutal regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad in power.
Cooperation between Israel and Russia has often resulted in the Russians turning a blind eye when Israel attacks Iranian positions in Syria, even though Russia and Iran are supposed to be allies working together in their joint venture to keep Syria’s Assad regime in power.
In responding to Iran’s desperate plea for more arms, therefore, Putin may be reluctant to take any action that could upset his delicate relationship with Israel.
Con Coughlin is the Telegraph‘s Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
Iran: A Grin and Bear it Game?
“Today he is the bravest, the wisest, and the most popular leader of the Resistance Front.” This is how the Iranian daily Kayhan spoke of guess who.
Wrong guess.
The daily’s editorialists are notorious for their exaggerated praise of the “Supreme Guide” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But this time it was not Khamenei they had in mind. Believe it or not, it was Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah, who was thus being accoladed beyond his wildest dreams. You may wonder why…. Until recently, the Tehran media treated Nasrallah as something of an Iranian satrap in Beirut. Each time he came to Tehran, he was reported to have asked for an audience with the Great Leader to offer a report on his satrapy.
So, what’s happening?
The short answer is that the ayatollah is in a conundrum. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has been a great humiliation for a regime that claims to be the new superpower that is making America “tremble like an autumn leaf”. But what to do?
A repeat of the recent comedy of launching 400 flying objects against Israel while making sure none reaches a target would be one hoax too many, even from a master of all hoaxes. Doing nothing is also an option for a regime inebriated with fake activism. It wasn’t such a long time ago that the ayatollah claimed that his message was conquering the whole world, including Belgium where its “young people” sent him a love letter to announce readiness for martyrdom.
Launching a real attack may offer initial satisfaction. But the question: “then what?” cannot be dismissed
The ayatollah knows better than anyone else that his Islamic Republic isn’t in any shape for a serious classical war.
To start with, there is zero popular support for dragging Iran into a war which former Foreign Minister Muhammad-Javad Zarif, now brought in from the cold, says “has nothing to do with us.”
Next, any war with Israel would come in the shape of air attacks by warplanes, drones, and missiles. As Iran has no air force worth speaking of, Israel would have the advantage of pick-and-hit targets. Iran is 88 times the size of Israel, and being unable to protect its skies would be a sitting duck.
Israel, by contrast, has a small airspace to secure, which it does with its multi-layered air- and missile-defense system, and support from 12 allies in the region and beyond.
Even if the ayatollah manages to kill many Israelis and Palestinians in an initial raid, he may be putting his whole regime at risk.
Exposed as a big talker and small achiever, he could face an internal popular uprising that might wish to seek a different way of life.
Khamenei knows that, and yellow being his favorite color, he is trying to step back from the brink with a minimum loss of face.
This is how he is trying to do it. First, he lowers his profile. Unlike the usual routine in which he gives a running commentary on every event under the sun, he has left the talking to two dozen clerical, military and political cherubins making blood-curdling threats.
Next, he has changed the mise en scène of his public appearances. Until now, he would always appear alone entering a mosque or a lecture hall, sometimes followed by scores of hangers-on from a distance. Recently, however, he is shown walking alongside other officials as a group, including the new President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was also allowed to stand next to him in the mourning prayers for Haniyeh.
The message is: we are moving towards collective leadership and, if there is a humble pie to eat, everyone at the banquet shall get a portion.
Next, his propaganda machine started talking of something called “The High Council of Islamic Resistance,” the first-ever session of which was attended by leaders and representatives of most of the militias funded by Tehran including Hezbollah, Hamas, Hashd al-Shaabi, the Houthis and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, who had come to Tehran to attend Pezeshkian’s inauguration.
According to Tehran sources, Khameeni has asked his special adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, to develop the gathering into a periodical one charged with “coordinating resistance operations” against the “Zionist enemy”.
In other words, the big boss is recruiting accomplices who may get a share of the credit if things go well but would receive a portion of the blame if they do not.
Khamenei is also seeking accomplices abroad. Tehran has just hosted General Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, who delivered a request for restraint from President Vladimir Putin.
Tehran media also claim that China and half a dozen Muslim nations have begged the “Supreme Guide” to play any scherzo moderato.
According to reports, Tehran has also sent a message to US President Joe Biden assuring him that any Iranian attack on Israel would be designed to do minimum damage. In exchange, Tehran wants a US guarantee that Israel will not retaliate. The text of the Iranian letter first appeared on the website of the Iranian Embassy in Bern. Switzerland is the contact country between Tehran and Washington and was supposed to pass on the letter.
All that is bad news for the various “resistance” outfits that are invited to take their own decisions individually or collectively and no longer counting on automatic intervention by Tehran in case they are attacked.
Being elevated as the bravest leader of “resistance,” Nasrallah may find himself in deep water without the ayatollah throwing a buoy.
Pretending that other “resistance” groups have a mind of their own could encourage Israel to go for a Tennessee bird-shoot strategy by taking out the laggard in a flight of birds and then proceeding to take out those ahead one after another until the leader is reached.
Khamenei’s new shying-off tactic could give Israel the chance to follow the destruction of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza with the crippling of the Houthis, the next laggard. That could be followed by “downgrading” the laggards in Iraq, with tacit support from the Iraqi regular army and Israel’s allies inside Iraq. That would put Hezbollah next in line for downgrading.
All that, of course, is speculation. But the fact is that anyone who thinks Khamenei would risk his own skin for Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, Hashd al-Shaabi and Hezbollah needs to have his head examined.
Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987. He is the Chairman of Gatestone Europe.
This article originally appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat and is reprinted with some changes by kind permission of the author.
Leave A Comment